- John Hogan is more than twice as likely to be preferred as Premier over any other party leader.
- Two thirds of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are satisfied with the performance of the provincial government, led by John Hogan.
Newfoundland and Labrador – October 1, 2025
With a provincial election just weeks away in Newfoundland and Labrador, the absence of polling has sparked conversation for many. Although typically reserved for subscribers of our Atlantic Quarterly study, Narrative Research has decided to publicly release results of its most recent voting intention poll, collected during the month of August. This summer, data collection was impacted by the NL wildfires and was conducted over an unusually long period (3 full weeks during the month of August). Accordingly, this information is reflective of broad public sentiment during that specific point in time, rather than a prediction of actual election results.
In August, the majority of residents were satisfied with the overall performance of the provincial government led by Premier John Hogan. Two-thirds (66%) of residents (compared with 57% in August 2024) expressed satisfaction, with just one-quarter (26%, compared with 37% in August 2024) dissatisfied. Satisfaction was generally consistent across the province and highest among residents aged 55+.
This high level of satisfaction with the provincial government’s performance is reflected in strong voting intentions for the Liberal Party. When considering voting intentions in August, the Liberals led among decided voters across the province. If a provincial election had been held in August, one-half of decided voters indicated they would support the Liberals (59%, compared with 43% in August 2024), while three in ten would support the PCs (compared with 35%). One in ten would support the NDP (9%, down from 19%). Support for the Liberals is strong across the province, although the PCs enjoy their strongest support in the Central / Eastern region.
“Findings suggest that John Hogan and the Liberal Party are in a strong position just a few weeks out from the provincial election,” said Margaret Brigley, CEO & Partner, Narrative Research. “In more than 25 years of tracking provincial government satisfaction in the region, we have never seen a government replaced with satisfaction levels this strong. Satisfaction levels remained stable following a three-month transition from Premier Furey to Premier Hogan, and are at the highest levels reported in that province in the past four years. The Liberals hold a significant lead in decided voting intentions, and Hogan is more than twice as likely to be preferred as Premier over any other party leader.”
Where are all the Election Polls for this NL Election?
There has been some discussion as to why few polls have been released concerning the upcoming election. There are several factors influencing that. Across the country it has become common practice to see many polls during any provincial / federal election. For the most part, polls are conducted online using online general population panels, which provides a cost-effective means for a research company to collect voting intentions. In NL, online general population panels are quite limited in size and are predominantly made up of urban residents.
Narrative Research has the largest online, general population panel in the region, but even so, its voting intention polling is conducted using a telephone methodology (via its Atlantic Quarterly) to ensure representation across the province. The Atlantic Quarterly (AQ) is conducted four times a year within a specific schedule, and that does not change to reflect the timing of elections. As a result, AQ results reflect public opinion at a specific point in time, and may not accurately predict election results, especially if an election is held months after data collection. A lot can happen in a short period of time during a campaign period.
Telephone research is notably more expensive than online research, but Narrative Research is committed to continuing to use this methodology for many purposes. Narrative Research has continued to track voting intentions each quarter but recently has chosen to include results in its Atlantic Quarterly report for subscribers, rather than release it publicly.
These results are part of Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent, quarterly telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are drawn from a sample of 350 adult residents of Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was conducted August 7-29, 2025, with overall results accurate to within ±5.2 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times. Note, data collection dates were extended in response to wildfires in NL. The results are weighted by region, age and gender to reflect the overall Newfoundland and Labrador adult population.
Narrative Research, www.narrativeresearch.ca, is a non-partisan, 100% Canadian-owned research company, certified as a Women Business Enterprise (WBE). The company has been operating since 1978, with headquarters in Halifax and, as the largest market research firm in Atlantic Canada, has over 25 employees based in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador. Follow us on LinkedIn or narrativeresearch.ca/news.
For more information, please contact:
Margaret Brigley, CEO & Partner, Narrative Research at 902.493-3830, mbrigley@narrativeresearch.ca
