Liberals maintain a strong lead overall in NL, with the Conservatives and the NDP neck and neck.

  • While the Liberals are ahead in decided voter support, the Conservatives and NDP are closely grouped, with key differences by age.
  • Justin Trudeau remains most preferred as Prime Minister, however, satisfaction with the Trudeau government shows a gradual decline over the past nine months.

HALIFAX, September 2, 2021: Poll results from early in the Federal Election campaign suggest a lead for the Liberals overall, with the NDP being ahead among younger decided voters.  As of August 29th, decided voter intentions place the Liberals at 52%, followed by the Conservatives (25%) and the NDP (22%). These results reflect a slight decline in decided voter support for the Liberals (down 8 points from 60% in May), while backing for the Conservatives has not changed appreciably (up 3 points from 22% in May). Support for the NDP has modestly increased (up 5 points from 17% in May). The Green Party receives less than one percent of the decided voter intentions (compared with 1% in May), while the People’s Party of Canada stands at 1% (compared with 0% in May). One-quarter of NL voters are undecided (25%).

Across the province, results are generally consistent, with Liberals maintaining the lead among decided voters in the Avalon, Central/Eastern, and Western/Labrador regions. Meanwhile, the Conservatives and the NDP are neck and neck in all the regions, except Central/Eastern where the Conservatives are ahead of the NDP.

Decided voting intentions vary by age. Younger residents (18-34) are modestly more likely to vote for the NDP than for the Liberals, while middle-aged and older residents (35+) are most likely to vote for the Liberals, followed by the Conservatives and the NDP.

Satisfaction with the overall performance of the federal government is consistent with Spring results, however it has gradually declined since November 2020.  Over one-half of residents (55%) express some level of satisfaction with the federal government’s overall performance, compared to 72% in November.

When asked which leader they would prefer as Prime Minister, four in ten NL residents express a preference for Justin Trudeau (40%, compared with 44% in May), while Jagmeet Singh receives 23% of mentions (compared with 16% in May), and Erin O’Toole is preferred by 18% of residents (compared with 15% in May).

These results are part of Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, with overall results based on a sample of 333 NL residents, conducted from August 15-29, 2021, and accurate to within ± 5.4 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

Narrative Research, is non-partisan and is one of Canada’s leading public opinion and market research companies. Follow us on Twitter @EveryNarrative.

For more information, contact:

Margaret Brigley, CEO, Narrative Research at 902.493-3830,

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