Liberals ahead in New Brunswick, with the Conservatives and NDP gaining momentum.

  • Overall decided voter intentions place Liberals ahead, with key differences by region and age.
  • Satisfaction with Trudeau government has declined.

HALIFAX, September 2, 2021: Poll results from early in the Federal Election campaign suggest a Liberal lead, although there has been a shift in momentum.  As of August 20th, decided voter intentions place the Liberals at 44%, followed by the Conservatives (24%) and the NDP (18%). These results suggest decided voter intentions have not changed appreciably since May 2021, though momentum is seen in growing support for both the Conservative Party and the NDP. Meanwhile, the Green Party garners 10 percent of the decided votes, and People’s Party of Canada stands at 4%. One-quarter of NB voters are undecided (24%).

Across the province, results show regional differences in voter intentions. Liberals are ahead in terms of decided voters in Northern NB, while the Conservatives are ahead in Southern NB. The Liberals and NDP are in a tight race in Moncton and area.

Decided voting intentions also vary by age. Younger residents (18-34) are more likely to intend to vote for the NDP, closely followed by the Liberals. Meanwhile, middle-aged and older residents (35+) express clear support for the Liberals.

Satisfaction with the overall performance of the federal government has declined from the Spring results. Just under one-half of residents (48%) express some level of satisfaction with the federal government’s overall performance, compared to 59% in May.

When asked which leader they would prefer as Prime Minister, one-third of New Brunswickers express a preference for Justin Trudeau (33%, compared with 38% in May), while Jagmeet Singh receives 19% of mentions (compared with 14% in May), and Erin O’Toole is preferred by 15% (compared with 14% in May).

“These findings reflect voting intentions early in the campaign. While the Liberals were well positioned in advance of the Election, some shift in voting intentions is evident, at the expense of the Liberal and the Green parties,” said Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research

These results are part of Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, with overall results based on a sample of 308 New Brunswickers, conducted from August 15-20, 2021, and accurate to within ± 5.6 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

Narrative Research, is non-partisan and is one of Canada’s leading public opinion and market research companies. Follow us on Twitter @EveryNarrative.

For more information, contact:

Margaret Brigley, CEO, Narrative Research at 902-493-3830,

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