January 21, 2026
As geopolitical tensions rise, a significant number of Canadians are worried that our southern neighbours could turn their military gaze north. In light of recent U.S. operations abroad, notably in Venezuela, and ongoing debates surrounding Greenland’s sovereignty, we asked over 1,200 Canadians how concerned they are about the possibility of an American military incursion into Canada this year.
The results are striking, with half of Canadians saying they are concerned about the prospect of a U.S. military invasion. This unease spans every region of the country and appears across all age groups, underscoring how the whole of the country is feeling the impact of current global events. However, notable differences emerge across genders, with men being significantly less concerned about the possibility of U.S. military invasion (38%) compared with women (53%).
“When half the country, from coast to coast and across generations, believes a U.S. military incursion is possible, that tells us something important about the current moment,” says Margaret Chapman, COO at Narrative Research. “Canadians are watching geopolitical developments closely and reassessing the stability of our traditional relationships.”
Results are from an online survey conducted in partnership between Narrative Research and the Logit Group. The survey was conducted between January 13 – 15, 2026 with 1,230 Canadians, 18 years of age or older from the Logit Group’s online Canadian Omnibus. Data were weighted based on the 2021 Census, by gender, age, and region to reflect actual population distribution. For more information, please contact:
Margaret Chapman, COO & Partner, Narrative Research – 902.493.3834, mchapman@narrativeresearch.ca
OR
Sam Pisani, Managing Partner, Logit Group – 416.629.4116, sam.pisani@logitgroup.com
Narrative Research (www.narrativeresearch.ca), is a non-partisan, 100% Canadian-owned, research company, certified as a Women Business Enterprise (WBE). Narrative Research provides clients with state-of-the-art research and strategic consulting services.
The Logit Group (https://logitgroup.com/) is a leading North American data collection and market research execution company headquartered in Toronto, conducting large-scale projects for a variety of well-known research agencies and brands. Logit employs industry-best technologies across an array of methodologies, and is independent, experienced and quality-oriented.
The question asked was:
The United States recently undertook military action in Nigeria and Venezuela, and has not ruled out military action to acquire Greenland from Denmark. All things considered, how concerned are you that the United States might militarily invade Canada in 2026?
Scale of 1 – 10 where 1 is not at all concerned and 10 is extremely concerned
