A three-way race in Nova Scotia, with Conservatives leading.

  • The gap between voting intentions for the Liberals and the Conservatives has diminished significantly, with more Nova Scotian decided voters indicating support for the Conservative Party.
  • Results show key differences by region and age.
  • Satisfaction with the Trudeau government has declined.

HALIFAX, September 2, 2021: Poll results from early in the Federal Election campaign suggest a spirited race ahead.  As of August 22nd, decided voter intentions place the Conservatives at 36%, followed by the Liberals (33%) and NDP (28%). These results reflect a notable decline in decided voter support for the Liberals (down 16 points from 49% in May), while backing for the Conservatives has increased (up 15 points from 21% in May). Meanwhile, support for the NDP has increased modestly (up 5 points from 23% in May). The Green Party receives 1% of decided voter intentions (down from 7% in May), while the People’s Party of Canada stands at 1% (unchanged from May). One-quarter of NS voters are undecided (24%), 6% refuse to state which party they support, and 4% do not plan to vote in the upcoming federal election.

Across the province, results show dramatic differences in voter intentions. Liberals are ahead in terms of decided voters in Halifax, while the Conservatives are ahead in the rest of mainland. The NDP and the Conservatives are in a tight race in Cape Breton, followed by the Liberals.   

Decided voting intentions also vary by age and household income. Younger residents (18-34) are more likely to vote for the NDP, while the middle age segment (35-54) is more likely to vote for the Conservatives. Among older residents (55+), the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives, followed by the NDP.

Decided voter intentions reflect a decline in satisfaction with the overall performance of the federal government since the Spring.  Just half of residents (50%) express some level of satisfaction with the federal government’s overall performance, compared to 61% in May.

Despite a shift in voting intentions, when asked which leader they would prefer as Prime Minister, close to one-third of Nova Scotians express a preference for Justin Trudeau (32%, compared with 35% in May), while Jagmeet Singh receives 25% of mentions (compared with 24% in May), and Erin O’Toole is preferred by 22% of the mentions (compared with 14% in May).

“These findings reflect notable changes in public opinion compared to findings in May,” said Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research.  “Within Nova Scotia, the results in some respects call to mind results of the recent provincial election, suggesting that Nova Scotia’s seats could be at play in this Election.”

These results are part of Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, with overall results based on a sample of 341 Nova Scotians, conducted from August 15-22, 2021, and accurate to within ± 5.3 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

Narrative Research www.narrativeresearch.ca, is non-partisan and is one of Canada’s leading public opinion and market research companies. Follow us on Twitter @EveryNarrative.

For more information, contact:

Margaret Brigley, CEO, Narrative Research at 902.493-3830, mbrigley@narrativeresearch.ca

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