- However, two thirds believe that Canada will experience an economic recession in 2025.
- Canadians largely believe that recent tariffs have resulted in a broken relationship between Canada and the United States.
July 10, 2025
In the run-up to a new Canada-U.S. trade and security deal, we asked Canadians across the country for their views of the relationship with the United States, their concerns about a recession, and their level of confidence in Prime Minister Carney’s ability to lead Canada with respect to the economy.
Results show that while a majority of Canadians are confident in the Prime Minister’s leadership on matters related to the economy, residents aren’t necessarily thinking that the U.S. trade relationship should be the number one concern. Indeed, only 28% feel that the most important current economic priority should be to repair our trade relationship with the United States, while six in ten believe the trade relationship between the two countries is broken. Older Canadians, aged 55 and over, are more likely to believe that the trade relationship is broken. Confidence in Prime Minister Carney’s leadership is consistent across the country, with the exception of those living in the Prairie provinces being more likely to be not at all confident (25%), compared with those living in other provinces (19% or less).
“With a new trade agreement expected within the next two weeks, there is clearly a lot of pressure on Prime Minister Carney to negotiate a fair deal for Canada,” said Narrative Research COO Margaret Chapman. “However, Canadians aren’t necessarily thinking that the U.S. relationship is key to improving the country’s economic situation.”
Canadians are clearly concerned about the economy, however, with two thirds feeling that Canada will experience an economic recession in 2025. Men are less likely than women to believe that an economic recession is imminent. Results are otherwise consistent across demographic sub-groups.
Results are from an online survey conducted in partnership between Narrative Research and the Logit Group. The survey was conducted between June 13 and 16, 2025 with 1,231 Canadians, 18 years of age or older from the Logit Group’s online Canadian Omnibus. Data were weighted based on the 2021 Census, by gender, age, and region to reflect actual population distribution. For more information, please contact:
Margaret Chapman, COO & Partner, Narrative Research – 902.493.3834, mchapman@narrativeresearch.ca
OR
Sam Pisani, Managing Partner, Logit Group – 416.629.4116, sam.pisani@logitgroup.com
Narrative Research (www.narrativeresearch.ca), is a non-partisan, 100% Canadian-owned, research company, certified as a Women Business Enterprise (WBE). Narrative Research provides clients with state-of-the-art research and strategic consulting services.
The Logit Group (https://logitgroup.com/) is a leading North American data collection and market research execution company headquartered in Toronto, conducting large-scale projects for a variety of well-known research agencies and brands. Logit employs industry-best technologies across an array of methodologies, and is independent, experienced and quality-oriented.
The questions asked were:
All things considered, how confident are you in the federal Liberal Government under Prime Minister Mark Carney to provide leadership to the Canadian economy at this time?
- Extremely confident
- Generally confident
- Not very confident
- Not at all confident
- Not at all confident
- Don’t know / not sure
All things considered, how likely do you think it is that Canada will experience an economic recession in 2025?
- Definitely
- Probably
- Probably not
- Definitely not
- Don’t know/Unsure
Which of the following two statements comes closer to your own thinking?
- As a result of recent US tariffs, Canada’s trade relationship with the United States is broken
- Canada’s most important current economic priority should be to repair our trade relationship with the United States
- Neither
- Don’t know/Unsure
