- The PC Party of Nova Scotia leads in voting intentions across the province.
- Tim Houston remains most preferred as Premier.
- The Premier’s decision to call an early election, ahead of the fixed election date, does not appear to significantly impact voting intentions.
Nova Scotia – November 20, 2024: With just one week until the Nova Scotia provincial election, results of Narrative Research’s latest survey show that Tim Houston’s PC Party holds a clear lead among decided voters, although this lead has slipped compared to voting intentions reported in August.
Currently, across the province, more than four in ten decided voters (44%, down from 53% in August 2024) intend to vote for the PC Party. Three in ten (28%) say they will vote for the NDP, up from 19% in August 2024. One-quarter intend to vote for the Liberal Party (24%, unchanged). A minority of decided voters would support the Green Party (3%, compared with 4%).
The PC Party holds the lead across the province, although the extent of their lead varies by region, with double digit leads in both Cape Breton and the rest of mainland, and just a slight lead in HRM. The NDP holds a close second place among decided voters in HRM, while in Cape Breton and the rest of mainland, the NDP and Liberals are neck and neck for second position. Support for the NDP is highest in Halifax and lowest in mainland Nova Scotia. Men are more likely than women to support the PCs, while women are more likely than men to support the NDP. Support for the PCs is most prevalent among those 35 or older, while support for the NDP is more evident among those 18 to 34 years old. Support for the Liberals increases slightly with age.
“Findings suggest the PCs will achieve a majority win in the upcoming election,” said Margaret Brigley, CEO & Partner of Narrative Research. “The question now is which party will be the official opposition. Our seat projection model suggests that second place is currently too close to call, and that the outcome will be largely dependent on who gets out to vote. Females and younger residents (18-34yrs) are notably more likely to vote NDP than Liberal.”
PREFERENCE FOR PREMIER: Across the province, Tim Houston of the PC Party remains most preferred as premier (35%, compared with 40% in August 2024). One-quarter (23%, compared with 19%) would prefer Claudia Chender of the NDP as premier, while fewer than two in ten (15%, compared with 18%) would prefer Zach Churchill of the Liberal Party. Few voice preference for the Green Party leader Anthony Edmonds as premier (4%, unchanged).
FIXED ELECTION DATE: Nova Scotians were asked to what extent they support or oppose the Premier’s decision to call an early election, ahead of the fixed election date. While Nova Scotians are more likely to oppose (51%) than support (38%) the Premier’s decision to call an early election, it does not appear to have a significant impact on voting intentions. In fact, a majority (54%) say his decision does not play a role in their voting decision in the upcoming election. One-quarter (27%) say it will play a small role, while 15% say it will play a large role.
These results are part of Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent, quarterly telephone survey, and are drawn from an overall probability sample of 800 adult Nova Scotians, conducted November 4-17, 2024. Overall results are accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times. The results are weighted by region, age, and gender to reflect the overall Nova Scotian adult population.
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Narrative Research, www.narrativeresearch.ca, is a non-partisan, 100% Canadian-owned research company, certified as a Women Business Enterprise (WBE). Follow us on LinkedIn or at narrativeresearch.ca/news.
For more information, please contact:
Margaret Brigley, CEO, Narrative Research at 902.493-3830 mbrigley@narrativeresearch.ca
OR
Margaret Chapman, COO, Narrative Research at 902.493-3834 mchapman@narrativeresearch.ca
