- Atlantic Canadians tend towards electoral flexibility rather than long-term partisan loyalty, but at the Federal level, that openness is currently consolidating into strong support for the governing Liberals.
- Two-thirds of voters across the region approve of the Carney government, with satisfaction spanning every province and major demographic sub-group, though some interesting differences emerge.
- Liberal dominance is driven by confidence in leadership and economic management, while those who are dissatisfied are worried about Canada-U.S. relations and the country’s direction.
March 25, 2026
Over half of Atlantic Canadians say they are fluid voters, in that they potentially change which party they support each election (55%), compared with 41% who usually vote for the same party. But in early 2026, that flexibility is consolidating decisively behind the Carney‑led Liberal government. New results from Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly® show strong and broad satisfaction with the Federal Government across the region, translating into a dominant Liberal position among decided voters. Importantly, this support is not rooted solely in policy agreement but is instead primarily based on perceptions of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s leadership.
Six-in-ten Atlantic Canadians prefer Carney as Prime Minister, compared to 16% who would prefer Pierre Poillievre.
Satisfaction with the Carney government is strong and broad‑based, with two‑thirds of Atlantic Canadians (67%) saying they are satisfied with the Carney government, including nearly one‑quarter (23%) who report being completely satisfied. Satisfaction spans all four Atlantic provinces and every major demographic group, though it peaks in Prince Edward Island (72%) and Nova Scotia (71%), while dissatisfaction remains limited at 21% overall. Satisfaction levels increase with age and with education levels.
When Atlantic Canadians are asked why they hold the opinion they do results reveal a clear contrast in how they talk about the Federal Government depending on their level of satisfaction. Those who are satisfied with Prime Minister Carney’s government most often attribute their satisfaction to confidence about economic management and Canada’s direction. Trade and international relations are mentioned with a more optimistic tone, and leadership appears as a reinforcing factor among satisfied Atlantic Canadians.
Dissatisfied residents most often anchor their views in perceptions of risk and decline. Trade and Canada–U.S. relations dominate their concerns, alongside doubts about national direction and leadership strength. Economic pressures appear, but as a secondary theme. Neutral residents are defined less by a shared issue agenda than by low conviction. Many explicitly say they are unsure or still forming an opinion, with no single issue clearly structuring their views.
If an election were held today, the Liberal party would hold a dominant electoral position throughout Atlantic Canada, both before and after undecideds are removed. When undecided voters are included, the Liberals lead with 56% support, compared with 18% for the Conservatives and 7% for the NDP. Fifteen per cent remain undecided. Among decided voters, however, the Liberal position expands to 67%. Conservatives stand at 22%, while the NDP remains in single digits (9%).
When asked if they had changed the party they would support since the last federal election, most voters are stable, but those who moved have largely moved to the Liberals. Indeed, the vast majority of Atlantic Canadians (83%) say they have not changed the party they support since the last federal election. However, among the 17% who report switching, movement is far from evenly distributed. Former Conservative and NDP supporters are disproportionately represented among switchers, while only 9% of current Liberal voters say they have changed parties, pointing to especially strong Liberal loyalty. Movement is primarily a result of party leadership or policy position.
“Atlantic Canadians are typically flexible voters, but right now that openness has solidified behind the Liberal government,” said Margaret Brigley, CEO & Partner, Narrative Research. “Support for Prime Minister Mark Carney appears broad and deep across the region, driven mainly by confidence in his leadership and handling of the economy.”
These results are part of Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent, quarterly survey. This quarter, results were collected online using Narrative Research’s East Coast Voice Online panel. In total, 1,381 completed surveys were achieved across the region (NS: n=580; NB: n=385; NL: n=240; PE: n=176) from March 6 – 11, 2026. The results are weighted by region, age, and gender to reflect the overall adult population in each province.
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Narrative Research, www.narrativeresearch.ca, is a non-partisan, 100% Canadian-owned research company, certified as a Women Business Enterprise (WBE). Follow us on LinkedIn or at narrativeresearch.ca/news.
For more information, please contact:
Margaret Brigley, CEO, Narrative Research at 902.493-3830 mbrigley@narrativeresearch.ca
OR
Margaret Chapman, COO, Narrative Research at 902.493-3834 mchapman@narrativeresearch.ca
